Earth, Atmosphere & Environment Sciences
Title : | Driving Mechanisms and Prediction of Occurrence of Compound Dry and Hot Extremes in India using Complexity-based Approach |
Area of research : | Earth, Atmosphere & Environment Sciences |
Focus area : | Climate change |
Principal Investigator : | Prof. Ankit Agarwal, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Roorkee, Uttarakhand |
Timeline Start Year : | 2024 |
Timeline End Year : | 2027 |
Contact info : | ankitfhy@iitr.ac.in |
Details
Executive Summary : | Compound Dry and Hot extremes (CDHE) have become increasingly frequent and intense due to climate change, posing significant threats to human health, agriculture, and ecosystems. However, there is very little research on identifying the possible modulators of CDHE and developing a reliable strategy for predicting their occurrence. The overarching goal of this project is to investigate the causes of CDHE and predict their occurrence at different spatial and temporal scales using complex networks. The project aims to answer three research questions: What are the spatial and temporal characteristics of CDHE across different climatic regions? Has there been any change in their statistical characteristics as a result of global warming? Work package 1 will develop statistical models capable of detecting and characterizing CDHE in different climatic regions. The temporal and spatial patterns of CDHE will be analyzed using statistical techniques and trend analysis. The impact of global warming on the statistical characteristics of CDHE across diverse climatic regions will also be evaluated. What are the causal connections between large-scale circulation patterns and CDHE, and how have these relationships varied over time in different climatic regions? Work package 2 will create a complex network model capable of identifying causal links between large-scale circulation patterns and CDHE. The relationships between large-scale circulation patterns and CDHE over time in various climatic regions will also be examined. How well can climate model ensembles simulate the physical mechanisms underlying CDHE across various climatic regions? What alterations are anticipated in the causal connections of these compound extremes in the next fifty years? Work package 3 aims to develop statistical models that can assess the accuracy of climate models in simulating CDHE. The performance of various climate models in simulating CDHE and the underlying physical mechanisms will be compared. The dependability of climate models in simulating projected changes in causal connections of CDHE will also be evaluated. The project's outcomes will contribute to the development of effective adaptation and mitigation strategies for CDHE. The spatial and temporal characteristics of CDHE across different climatic regions and their statistical characteristics will be identified. Causal connections between large-scale circulation patterns and CDHE will be investigated, and climate model ensembles' accuracy in simulating CDHE will be assessed. This study's results will enable policymakers, water resource managers, and stakeholders to make informed decisions for developing sustainable strategies to mitigate the impacts of CDHE. |
Co-PI: | Dr. Maheswaran Rathinasamy, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Hyderabad, Telangana |
Total Budget (INR): | 30,50,360 |
Organizations involved