Executive Summary : | Climate change and land use changes are expected to significantly impact mountain ecosystems, particularly in the Himalaya region. These impacts include shifts in distribution along elevational gradients, changes in phenology, delayed hibernation, reduced population size, loss of population connectivity and gene flow, and local species extinctions. The Asiatic black bear Ursus thibetanus serves as an ideal model species for examining climate change impacts on its ecosystem. Previous studies on black bears have focused on the species distribution range but neglected other ecological and genetic factors that could drive it to extinction. This study aims to identify major climate and land use change impacts on ecology and population critical to its survival, including distribution range, population connectivity, genetic diversity, and gene flow. The research hypothesizes that major climate change impacts, such as temperature and precipitation changes, plant phenology, and land use change, will cumulatively influence key aspects of ecology and population of the species. To achieve this, multi-scale ensemble modeling will be used to predict species distribution, non-invasive genetic analysis using microsatellite markers to assess population genetic characteristics, and different scenario models to predict gene flow and future population and genetic connectivity. The study will involve field surveys in about 15 protected areas in North-Western Himalaya to record species occurrence and collect non-invasive bear samples. This will help identify major impacts of climate and land use change on black bear distribution, population connectivity, and gene flow, assessing the species' future viability and potential climate refugia. |