Earth, Atmosphere & Environment Sciences
Title : | Seasonal Hydrologic Predictions based on Regional Forecasts of Monsoon Rainfall with CWRF and Statistical Downscaling |
Area of research : | Earth, Atmosphere & Environment Sciences |
Focus area : | Hydrology forescasting |
Principal Investigator : | Dr. Subimal Ghosh, Deptt. of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Bombay |
Timeline Start Year : | 2014 |
Timeline End Year : | 2017 |
Contact info : | subimal @ civil.iitb.ac.in; subimal.ghosh @ gmail.com |
Details
Executive Summary : | Seasonal prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) is a high priority research challenge because of the complex ocean-atmosphere
and land-atmosphere interaction processes resulting in variability at diurnal to decadal time-scales, but the state of the art coupled climate
models still have limitations in simulating regional Indian monsoon rainfall. Planning for water resources and agricultural management needs
hydrologic predictions, which need predicted ISMR for hydrologic modeling. The project proposes to simulate and predict hydrologic scenarios
over India at fine resolutions (very high-resolutions at river basic scales) with a coupled dynamic-statistical downscaling model applied to
predicted ISMR from a global coupled climate model. For dynamic downscaling, the Climate Weather Research and Forecasting (CWRF) model
will be used. The dynamic downscaling model is proposed to be run at a resolution of 10 km, which will be further downscaled at station level
with statistical downscaling for watersheds with the Upper Godavari river basin acting as the pilot site. The advantage of using CWRF is its
enhanced capability to simulate climate, optimized physics ensemble options, better representation of land atmosphere interactions, integrated
watershed modeling, etc. Use of multiple physics modules of CWRF will help in testing different scientific hypotheses and understanding the
processes. |
Organizations involved